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EXCHANGE RATE IMPACT ON OUTPUT AND INFLATION: A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE FROM NIGERIA
This research looks at the inflationary effect of currency devaluation and its contractionary effect on real output growth in Nigeria. The study uses quarterly data from 1990 to 2006 and utilizes the Johansen co-integration regression test and vector error correction method (VECM); and examines the short run and long run relationship between exchange rate, inflation and real output. The study finds that firstly, in both the short run and long run, fluctuations in the real exchange rate are significant on real output growth and expansionary in both periods. Secondly, the findings of the study suggest that exchange rate fluctuations are neither inflationary nor deflationary in Nigeria in the short run. Lastly, the result of the long run supports our hypothesis that devaluation of real exchange rate is inflationary. It implies that the weakening of domestic currency as part of the exchange rate liberalization policy is an incentive to Nigeriaan exporters and has potential economic growth gains though, in the long run, it has inflationary effects.
Keywords: inflationary effect, currency devaluation, exchange rate, co-integration test, Nigeria