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THE EURO AREA PERIPHERY AND THE REST-OF-THE-WORLD: A DSGE APPROACH.

Abstract

This research builds upon recent work undertaken for other small open economies to construct a DSGE model for an euro area peripheral economy. The model takes into account of euro area membership and departs from the literature by considering two di⁄erent sectors: a goods and other services sector and a tourism sector. The tourism sector focuses on exports, is more labour intensive, and has a signi cant share of its market located outside the euro zone. Some parameters of the model are calibrated and others estimated using Bayesian techniques to match the case of Cyprus, but can also be applied to other countries. The model properties are validated through statistical tests, impulse-response analysis, and variance decompositions.

Keywords: DSGE models, small open economy, bayesian methods JEL Classi cation: E30, F41, C11

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